These days it’s hard to know what is happening in the housing market. Is it rising or falling? There are plenty of people out there trying to predict what is going to happen. The problem is that they are looking nationwide or citywide. Investors need to know what is happening in their specific farm area, though. Here are the top ways to determine whether your market go up or down in 2010.
Prices rise or fall in a specific market based on a number of different factors, and every market will move based on its own unique conditions. Within that market, even different property types and neighborhoods will react differently.
You should look at the trends within a 1 mile radius from the center of your area in order to make sure you are looking specifically at your market. You also want to look at homes within 10% of the size of the median home and lot that you are interested in buying and selling.
Home prices are for the most part determined by the months of housing inventory available. Price changes tend to lag behind changes in inventory by about 6-10 months. So if housing inventory increases, you will see a decrease in prices about 6-10 months later. If the inventory decreases, prices will then rise about 6-10 months later. Real estate investors are able to use short sales to offer deeply discounted prices when they sell houses before the rest of the homes in an area catch up.
There is a very simple rule of thumb you can use in your market in 2010. When there are 8 months or more of inventory available, prices will fall. If there are 2-3 months of inventory available, prices will rise.
If your area has a high demand for starter homes that was not quenched by the first round of the First Time Homebuyer credit, there may be a continuation of the feeding frenzy experienced in some markets. With the extension to all buyers, a larger supply of starter homes may be available in some markets, spurring sales and boosting prices. There are indications that the tax credit is just a minor factor in the economic recovery picture, though. Only 6 percent of homeowners who bought homes for the first time this past fall did so because of the tax credit.
Gen Y’ers (1977-1994) are in their prime home-buying years. It will take a relatively small increase in demand to spark building in those parts of the country that generate jobs for this age group and have remained relatively stable during the recession.
The cost of ownership is another factor that directly drives up the price of homes. In 2010, the U.S. Treasury will play a very important role in determining whether the market will rise or fall. There was been little incentive shown by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2009, but it might be different in 2010. The Fed might experience pressure to raise interest rates in order to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even just a small increase in interest rates could drive potential buyers out of the market.
Local and state governments may succumb to pressure to raise local property taxes and state income taxes in order to balance budgets for 2011 and beyond. Higher property taxes will drive more buyers out of the market.
Last is the impact foreclosures will have in your specific market. There will probably be spikes in foreclosures occurring in markets that relied heavily on Option ARM mortgages to sell homes from 2004-2007. These rates will reset soon as interest rates increase, causing foreclosures to spike. Those communities that are already drowning in unemployment will also face another rash of foreclosures.
These are just some of the factors that will affect your local market in 2010. Apply the ones that fit, as each market and micro-market will be different.
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